Despite a significant reduction in projected fuel price hikes, South African motorists still face uncertainty as government relief measures are set to expire. The National Treasury cut fuel levies by R3.00 per litre in April 2026, but this relief ends on May 6.
Petrol prices are expected to increase by R1.82 to R2.14 per litre in May 2026. Diesel prices will likely rise even more steeply, with projections indicating an increase of R5.92 to R5.93 per litre.
The Central Energy Fund noted that international petroleum products account for 99.5% of the fuel price under-recovery. This reliance on global markets leaves South African consumers vulnerable to fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices have recently surged over $100 a barrel due to concerns about military escalation in the Middle East. As a result, the rand is trading at R16.64/$, just 0.4% weaker amid these geopolitical issues.
In early April, forecasts predicted potential diesel price hikes as high as R11 per litre. However, the expected increases have eased over recent weeks. Motorists must now prepare for the impact of the upcoming petrol and diesel price changes.
The government is considering extending the fuel levy relief, which could cost between R10 billion and R12 billion. Yet, no confirmation has been provided regarding this decision.
This sequence of events matters significantly for South African drivers and businesses alike. The biggest petrol price hike recorded occurred in July 2022, with an increase of R2.57 per litre.
As the situation evolves, officials continue to monitor the impact of external factors on domestic fuel prices. The exact effects of ongoing geopolitical tensions remain unclear.
