What the data shows
The recent coup in Madagascar has raised significant questions regarding the future of governance in the country. Colonel Michael Randrianirina assumed control after deposing President Andry Rajoelina on October 12, 2025. This event has led to a complex political situation, with various international organizations responding differently to the change in leadership.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has not suspended Madagascar following the coup, citing the High Constitutional Court’s declaration of a vacant presidency. According to High Constitutional Court President Florent Rakotoarisoa, “The functions of the Head of State are exercised by the President of the Senate.” In contrast, the African Union (AU) has suspended Madagascar, stating that an unconstitutional change of government has occurred.
In the wake of the coup, Randrianirina has promised to restore a democratic civilian government within 18 to 24 months. This timeline has been met with skepticism, as political scientists Salah Ben Hammou and Jonathan Powell described the situation as a “popular revolution culminating in a coup.” The SADC has directed Randrianirina to submit a dialogue readiness report and a draft transition roadmap by February 28, 2026, with plans for presidential elections to be held in 2027.
Amidst the political upheaval, the United States has committed to investing $10 million in Madagascar’s health supply chain to improve the distribution of malaria medicines and essential medical supplies. This funding will be implemented from October 2025 to September 2026, with a total programme value of approximately $175 million for the health sector from 2026 to 2030. The US and Madagascar signed a five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in December 2025, which supports various health initiatives including malaria prevention and maternal and child health.
Humanitarian assistance is also being delivered through the ADRA Vonona project, which aims to support around 16,000 households affected by Cyclone Gezani. This assistance highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the population, even as political changes unfold.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding whether Randrianirina will meet the promised deadlines for restoring civilian government. Additionally, it remains uncertain what specific actions SADC will take if Randrianirina does not adhere to the agreed roadmap. The dialogue process to restore civilian rule should be inclusive, as expressed by concerns shared by the SADC and AU Peace and Security Council.
As Madagascar navigates this tumultuous period, the international community will be closely watching the developments. The outcomes of the proposed transition roadmap and the effectiveness of foreign investments in the health sector may significantly influence the country’s path forward.
